Despite 20-40 kt shear overhead, Invest 93L organized over very warm Caribbean waters. Convection will not only interact with moderate shear in the next 48 hours, but it will interact with land too. The graphic below shows the WRF forecast shear as of Sunday morning.

 As the tropical wave, or its remaining convection enters the southern Gulf of Mexico mid week the environment remains hostile for future intensification. Despite continued moderate shear, climatology favors the Bay of Campeche for organization. Water temperatures in this region sit at a very warm 84 degrees.  Regardless of organization, a strong ridge of high pressure over the Southeast U.S. will stear this potential system west and a hold it well sound of the U.S. Computer models don’t depict significant organization of 93L. It is worth watching mid to late work week.

The graphic below shows the WRF forecast shear on Wednesday morning. It forecasts 20-30 kts, which is in the moderate range.

The central Caribbean tropical wave drifts over the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche in the Southern Gulf early this work week. In this region upper level winds are a little more favorable for tropical development. An area of low pressure may develop my mid week. The GFS model continues to hint as a possible weak Tropical Storm Barry in the Bay of Campeche mid to late work week. The graphic below shows the GFS 06Z model run at 2 AM Friday. The reliable European model doesn’t develop this feature, but it is something to watch.

Tropical cyclone development greatly favors the Gulf of Mexico, and Western Caribbean. The graphic below shows origins of named storms during the last two weeks in June from 1900-2011. Notice a cluster of storms in the Bay of Campeche and the Western Caribbean near Central America.

It’s rare for fronts to settle into Central Florida in mid June. A frontal boundary washes out over this region Saturday triggering showers and thunderstorms. Old frontal boundaries often serve as the focal point for tropical cyclone development. We’ll watch this boundary but models don’t develop anything with this feature.

Closer to home high pressure at the surface resides in the East Central Gulf of Mexico limiting showers and thunderstorms. An upper level low with noticeable spin on satellite and radar sits over the Florida Straights and sparks a region of showers and thunderstorms offshore. This area of convection slides towards the Bahamas today as high presure builds east. Although upper level winds are favorable for development, this is not a surface area of low pressure.

After a warm week, water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico have soared in the low to mid 80s. These waters are plenty warm to support tropical development. No reliable computer model develops a tropical cyclone over the next several days.

Typically the first named storm to the Atlantic Season forms on July 9th. Andrea formed on June 5th over one month ahead of schedule. After an early start the Gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic are nice and quiet Sunday. In the northern Gulf of Mexico, deep tropical moisture from remnants of a surface trough enhance heavy showers and thunderstorms along the northern Gulf coast. Moderate shear and interaction will land make tropical development unlikely in this region. Elsewhere disorganized convection continues near a weak tropical wave near Puerto Rico. Convection is limited and shear is moderate to high limiting tropical development here too.

Shear in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean remain moderate to high into the upcoming work week. This will keep clusters of showers and thunderstorms from organizing. No reliable computer moder develops a tropical cyclone in the next five days.

Andrea rapidly tracked up the East Coast but it still dumped a swath of 2-4″ of rainfall from central North Carolina to southern Maine. The graphic below shows 24 hour rainfall estimates in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.

Although rainfall winds down Saturday, seas will be slow to subside. A bullseye of 17 ft surf sits southeast of Long Island Saturday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics there are no areas of immediate concern. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms sits in the central Gulf of Mexico. This is associated with a broad mid and upper low. Some of this energy will aid in tropical downpours and thunderstorms this weekend in Florida, but tropical organization is not expected. A tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles generates showers and thunderstorms. These are disorganzied and due to very high shear in the 40 kt range tropical cyclone development is not expected.

As of Friday morning wind gusts to near tropical storm force in the coastal Carolinas. A station in Folly Beach South Carolina reported a wind gust of 47 mph early Friday morning. Gusts near tropical storm force are possible in the Mid Atlantic region is coastal areas Friday.

Andrea officially made landfall in coastal Dixie county Florida with 65 mph winds around 5:45 PM Thursday. It was a quick stay, but in a 24-36 hour period Andrea soaked Florida, brought tropical storm force wind gusts, and multiple tornadoes.  Minor coastal flooding during high tide was also reported closing many major roadways in Tampa Bay including Bayshore Blvd near Downtown Tampa. Below is graphic headlining rainfall totals through Friday morning. Tampa International set a daily rainfall record Thursday with 3.31″ inches recorded. Lakewood Ranch in Manatee county saw 5.23.”  2-4″ was recorded around Tampa Bay Thursday. A peak wind gust of 60 mph was recorded Thursday in Anna Maria Island. This reading was 42 feet off the ground.

6

The National Weather Service of Tampa Bay confirms 4 short lived EF 0 tornadoes Thursday. The photo below shows damage from an overnight tornado in Myakka City. There were no injuries with this tornado but a barn was destroyed and a horse was put down as result of injuries. In Southern Pinellas county in Gulfport a restaurant was damaged. Damage from this tornado is rated an EF 0 with 60 mph peak winds.

Satellite and radar imagery shows moderate shear displaces the heaviest rains east and north of Andrea’s center. This puts Florida on the wet side of the storm. There is also enough spin in the atmosphere to spin up a few tornadoes. A Tornado Watch is in effect for much of south and central Florida until 11 AM.

A swath of 2-5+” is possible for much of central and north central Florida through Friday morning. These totals are estimated by the Weather Prediction Center. These totals will be impressive and could cause flooding. Grounds are already saturated from heavy rains over the weekend and the work week.

While rain and possible freshwater flooding is the biggest threat, Andrea also brings coastal impacts to Florida. During times of high tide minor coastal flooding is possible. A 2 ft storm surge will affect the Tampa Bay Area beaches when winds veer onshore during these tide cycles. Wave heights build to 11.5 feet at the offshore St Petersburg buoy early Thursday.

Colorado State University will be putting out their 1st quantitative forecast for the 2013 season on Wednesday, April 10th. Some of the factors to be considered is we are in a ENSO-neutral pattern now and long-range models suggest this will continue thru the summer months. We have also seen that much of the Atlantic basin sea surface temperatures have been warmer than climatology.

One of the factors is the temperature of the oceans. Much of the Caribbean and the Atlantic have seen sea surface temperatures running from 0.5° to 1.5°C above normal. This has already suggested to some scientist that this could be an active season. It is important to remember that there are many “ingredients” that go into forming tropical systems. Any change in one of these variables can change the season. Some variables can have a much more profound effect on a season such as large amounts of wind shear which is typical in an el Niño season.

The hurricane season typically starts out slowly with any storms forming close to home. Waters of the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean are normally first to produce a tropical system because the waters tend to warm quicker and frontal systems moving into the southeast US stall over the Gulf or dissipating boundaries become catalysts for the formation of tropical systems. Then as the rest of the Atlantic begins to warm the area for tropical development begins to expand further to the east with the peak of the season on September 10th.

Now is the time to begin considering your plan for the 2013 Hurricane season and to refresh any supplies in your hurricane kit. As always, we will keep you up to date and informed on all the activity in the tropics right here on myfoxhurricane.com