Colorado State University will be putting out their 1st quantitative forecast for the 2013 season on Wednesday, April 10th. Some of the factors to be considered is we are in a ENSO-neutral pattern now and long-range models suggest this will continue thru the summer months. We have also seen that much of the Atlantic basin sea surface temperatures have been warmer than climatology.

One of the factors is the temperature of the oceans. Much of the Caribbean and the Atlantic have seen sea surface temperatures running from 0.5° to 1.5°C above normal. This has already suggested to some scientist that this could be an active season. It is important to remember that there are many “ingredients” that go into forming tropical systems. Any change in one of these variables can change the season. Some variables can have a much more profound effect on a season such as large amounts of wind shear which is typical in an el Niño season.

The hurricane season typically starts out slowly with any storms forming close to home. Waters of the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean are normally first to produce a tropical system because the waters tend to warm quicker and frontal systems moving into the southeast US stall over the Gulf or dissipating boundaries become catalysts for the formation of tropical systems. Then as the rest of the Atlantic begins to warm the area for tropical development begins to expand further to the east with the peak of the season on September 10th.

Now is the time to begin considering your plan for the 2013 Hurricane season and to refresh any supplies in your hurricane kit. As always, we will keep you up to date and informed on all the activity in the tropics right here on myfoxhurricane.com