Tropical cyclone development in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is unlikely. On Sunday, a weak area of low pressure combats drier air aloft and high westerly shear. Convection is disorganized and displaced east of a broad circulation. This weak low can be traced back to the remnants of Tropical Storm Beatriz in the east Pacific. While tropical development is not expected, tropical moisture will set the stage for a wet Tuesday and Wednesday in the Sunshine State.
The weak area of low pressure merges with a cold front early this work week. During this time, wind shear will be way too high for tropical organization. The GFS winds shear model shows moderate to high wind shear in conjunction with these features Tuesday night.
Multiple waves of steady rain/embedded gusty storms are possible for Florida and portions of the northern Gulf coast mid work week. While some brief localized flooding is possible, this is beneficial rain due to the ongoing drought. The Weather Prediction Center racks up 3-4″+ for much of Florida by Friday morning.