Final Weeks of 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season; Wind Shear is Still High

It’s the final stretch of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane season. Wind shear has kept the Atlantic Basin in check.  On Monday upper level winds are unfavorable for tropical depression development in the Gulf of Mexico, northwest Caribbean and Atlantic. There are no signs of any tropical depression development over the next 5 days.

gfs-wind-shear

It’s a ways off, but long-range models hint that the western Caribbean is a place to watch in about 7-10 days. While wind shear has been high in the northwest Caribbean it has been significantly lower in the southwest Caribbean. Below is the forecast as pressure begins to lower next Monday evening. Climatology favors a northeast track mid-week next week. We’ll keep you posted if model trends continue.
ecmwf-vs-gfs-mslp-and-precip-rate

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