The dry air that has prevented systems from developing all hurricane season long takes a toll on Invest 97L Monday. While upper level winds are a little more favorable today dry air in the mid levels of the atmosphere surrounds the tropical wave and keeps it disorganized near the Lesser Antilles. Invest 97L is a very elongated system so if convection tries to reorganize early this week it will be a slow process. If further organization occurs Hurricane Reconnaissance Aircraft are on deck to investigate Tuesday. The National Hurricane Center bumps down the chances of a tropical depression forming. As of Monday morning they put these odds at 20% by Wednesday morning but at 50% by Saturday. If the tropical wave survives a batch of dry, stable air upper levels are quite favorable for organization in the coming days. Caribbean waters are plenty warm too. It’s a wait and see situation early this work week.
Early Monday morning computer models back off on the future intensity of Invest 97L. Ironically they also shift the possible track more west northwest. This could lead to more land interaction which would keep the possible tropical cyclone in a weaker state.